How to calculate the best Time to Trade (and to Take Profits)

Do you know what is the main difference between the retail traders and the istitutionals?

The timing.

The istitutional buy when the retails are selling betting on further advance and are selling when the retail decide to join the, already mature, bullish trend.

Are you trying to be a trend follower but you always join it too late?

You open perfect positions but you never know when it is the moment to start taking your profit?

The solution is: starting to trade following the market timing.

What does allow you to identify and analyse the market timing?

The Hurst Cycles.

Yes, once again.

Do you want to be the next market watchmaker?

Read this article.

The perfect Timing to Trade the Market [Infographic]

Here the standard movement of a cycle (Created using “the cyclical principle of the sum“).

From the standard movement of a cycle we can identify 3 moments:

  • Buy: it starts from the minimum of the cycle and ends when it reaches its half duration.
  • Take Profit: It is on the second top the cycle (which could be higher or lower depending on the higher cycle as explained here: “How the Hurst Cycles change in a strong market trend“)
  • Sell: It occurs when the cycle reversed and it last until its average duration counting from the initial minimum.

Here a practical example:

Average duration of the cycle: 192 period.
Buying moment: 96 periods (half of the cycle).
Taking profit: Any periods between the half (96 periods) and the reversal of the cycle.
Selling moment: Any periods between the reversal of the cycle and its average duration (192 periods).

The TIMING Indicator

In order to systemically measure the cycle durations I have programmed a TIMING Indicator based on the Cycle Indicator which:

  • Calculate the periods a cycle stays bullish or bearish. (Black Line)
  • Calculate where probably the half of the cycle will be. (Red Line)

The perfect Timing to Open a Position

When the Cycle Indicator changes output (from -1 to +1, or from +1 to -1) the counting start again from 1.

As you learned from the infographic the perfect timing to open a position in the direction of the selected cycle is within its first half which, in the TIMING Indicator, is represented when the black line is below the red line.

The best moment to Take your Trading Profits

Following, once again, the infographic at the beginning of this article, the best moment to take your trading profit is between the halft of the cycle and the cycle reversal.

Looks great, isn't it?

Using this strategy you avoid to close your positions when the cycle already reversed and you can try to take your trading profits around the tops.

Bonus: Where will the next minimum be?

In the article "How the Hurst Cycles change in a strong market trend" you learned that:

  • The bullish cycles (second minimum above the first one) have its maximum in the second half.
  • The bearish cycles (second minimum below the first one) has its maximum in the first half.

So, how can you forecast where the next minimum will be?

Easy one. When the cycle reverses you have to check when the top of the cycle is:

  • If the top of the cycle appears while the black line of the TIMING Indicator is still below the red line (half of the cycle) you can forecast that the second minimum will be below.
  • If the top of the cycle appears while the black line of the TIMING Indicator is above the red line (half of the cycle) you can forecast that the second minimum will be above the starting cycle.

Example with a bullish and a bearish cycle.

The Timing Indicator is part of Hurst Cycles Course The Hurst Cycles Course. Download it Here.

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